2010 Housing Financial Predictions

2010 Housing Financial Predictions

I just read this article and thought it would be of benefit to others, so here it is...

Getting a Mortgage in 2010: 10 Things to Know

More than three years into a painful housing crash, the real estate market has sent recent--albeit tentative--signs of stabilization. Home sales have increased, inventory levels are down, and price declines have become less precipitous. Along with more affordable home prices and a tax perk from Uncle Sam, attractive mortgage rates--which remained below 5 percent as of late November--have been a driving force behind this development. The availability of low mortgage rates will play a decisive role in the performance of the 2010 housing market as well. To help consumers better understand the requirements and costs they will face as they shop for a home loan next year, U.S. News spoke with a handful of housing market experts and compiled a list of 10 things to know about getting a mortgage in 2010.

1. Still tight: The steep run-up in home prices during the first half of the decade was fueled in large part by breezy lending standards. Some bankers handed out loans without down payments or documentation requirements. But when the housing bubble popped and those loans became massive losses, banks began raising lending standards for borrowers of all stripes. And with the labor market continuing to erode--the unemployment rate hit 10.2 percent in October--and mortgage delinquency rates setting new records, there is no reason to expect credit requirements to loosen in 2010. "Lending standards have tightened dramatically between 2007 and 2009," says Scott Stern, CEO of Lenders One, a cooperative of independent mortgage bankers. "I think there will be a little more belt-tightening in 2010."

2. Down payments: This tight credit environment affects consumers in several ways. First, down payment requirements will be higher than they were just a few years ago. Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration are at the low end of the spectrum and come with minimum down payments of 3.5 percent. (More on FHA loans below.) Down payments on loans outside of the FHA will vary depending on the market, the borrower, and the property type. "Generally, to get the best rate around, you need at least 20 percent for a down payment," says Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance. "That doesn't mean you can't get a mortgage if you have less of a down payment . . . it just means that you are not going to get the best interest rates." Could lenders ease up on down payment requirements in 2010? Possibly. If lenders become convinced that home prices are improving, they may allow borrowers to put slightly less down. But don't expect that to occur until the end of the year--if at all.

3. Credit scores: Cecala says that borrowers will need a FICO score of at least 730 to get the best mortgage rates. They also will need to fully document their income and assets. To ensure that your credit score is as strong as possible, borrowers should access their credit reports. The Fair and Accurate Credit Transactions Act entitles consumers to one free credit report from all three major credit reporting bureaus--TransUnion, Equifax, and Experian--each year. (The free reports can be obtained at annualcreditreport.com.) Consumers should examine each report to make sure it doesn't include any errors. "[Consumers] ought to know what their credit score is; they ought to know what's on their credit report; they ought to make sure that what's on their credit report is in fact theirs," says Rick Allen, director of strategic initiatives for Mortgage Marvel, an online mortgage shopping website. "That's a must do for everybody."

4. FHA: Borrowers who can't meet these tighter lending requirements can turn to the FHA, a federal agency that insures mortgage loans against default. Standards for FHA loans are typically less onerous than those for private lenders. The average credit score for FHA borrowers is about 690, and the minimum down payment is 3.5 percent, Cecala says. "If you can't make the 730 [credit score] or you can't make the 20 percent down [payment], the next best thing is FHA," Cecala says. The downside is that FHA loans come with additional costs. Borrowers must pay an insurance premium as well as a slightly higher interest rate, Cecala says.

5. FHA increase? With so many borrowers unable to meet today's stricter lending requirements, FHA-backed loans have become increasingly popular. Today, the FHA guarantees nearly 3 of every 10 new home mortgages. That's a stunning increase from 2006, when the agency backed roughly 3 percent of new home loans. Meanwhile, the agency's finances have deteriorated considerably. The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate for FHA loans increased from about 13 percent in the third quarter of last year to 14.36 percent in this year's third quarter. At the same time, the agency's capital reserve ratio dipped below the level that Congress mandates. In the face of mounting political pressure, the Obama administration has announced new steps that may make it more difficult for some borrowers to obtain mortgages backed by the agency. The steps include raising the minimum FICO score, increasing up-front cash requirements, and possibly charging higher insurance premiums. "We want to ensure that we are able to continue to support the housing market in the short term and provide access to homeownership over the long-term, while minimizing the risk to the American taxpayer," Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan told a congressional committee in written testimony.

6. Asset purchase program: Mortgage rates in 2010 are expected to climb from 2009's extremely low levels. After the Federal Reserve announced plans to purchase debt and mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last year, rates on 30-year fixed conforming mortgages fell to historic lows, plunging to 4.97 percent in late November from 6.19 a year earlier. But the Fed's asset purchase program is scheduled to expire at the end of the first quarter of 2010, and a lack of private demand for mortgage-backed securities could lead to higher rates. Keep in mind that the Fed has already extended this program once. And if it appears that the market needs additional government support to keep rates low, the Fed could always decide to remain in the market. Keith Gumbinger of HSH.com expects rates to increase from current levels to between 5 and 5.25 percent by the end of March 2010.

7. Jumbo mortgages: Rates on more expensive home loans--or jumbo mortgages--have dropped to extremely attractive levels, hitting 5.88 percent in the week that ended November 27. "That ranks with all-time bests," Gumbinger says. But while he expects rates on jumbo mortgages to remain historically attractive throughout 2010, many borrowers won't be able to obtain them. That's because most banks have to keep jumbo mortgages on their books and therefore apply much stricter lending standards to them. (Smaller conforming loans can be sold off to Fannie and Freddie.) "Your down payment requirements [for jumbo mortgages] are anywhere between 40 percent down to 20 percent down, depending upon what is happening in your marketplace," Gumbinger says. "You may have to show superhuman strength in terms of credit, [and] you may have to show extraordinary income size."

8. Fed rate hike: In attempting to jump-start the economy, the Fed has slashed its benchmark federal funds rate to as low as zero percent. And even as some express concerns about future inflation, the central bank in early November said that economic conditions were "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." As such, economists don't expect the Fed to raise rates anytime soon. "The statement does not lead us to change our view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged until the September 2010 meeting, when we expect the first rate hike," Dean Maki of Barclays Capital Research said in a report. But while an increased federal funds rate could push rates on certain products--such as adjustable rate mortgages or home equity lines of credit--higher, it has little direct influence on fixed mortgage rates.

9. Recovery: A recovery in the U.S. economy may also lead to increased mortgage costs. That's because economic improvement could create more demand for credit, which pushes rates higher. At the same time, a recovery could embolden investors to move money out of ultrasafe assets like 10-year treasuries and into more risky investments. And since 30-year fixed mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year treasury note, such a development would put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Gumbinger says that economic improvement and other factors could push rates on 30-year fixed mortgages as high as 5.75 percent by midsummer. "After that, you are going to be at the whims of the economy," he says.

10. Fannie and Freddie's future: A wild card in the outlook for mortgage rates is the administration's plans for Fannie and Freddie. The two mortgage finance giants--which buy home loans from banks--are a key source of liquidity for the market. The government-chartered companies have long been controversial, and speculation about their future has been mounting since their shaky finances forced Uncle Sam to take over last year. The administration's plans for their future--which could include liquidation or converting them to public utilities--could become clearer in early 2010. This decision could have profound implications for mortgage rates, Gumbinger says. "We could have some dislocations in the supply chains with mortgages depending upon how immediate or how gradual the changes to the structures of those companies are," he says.



Life isn’t about waiting for the storm to pass…
It’s about learning to dance in the rain.

The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity. The fears are paper tigers. You can do anything you decide to do. You can act to change and control your life; and the procedure, the process is its own reward. - Amelia Earhart

"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard

Thanks Cindy.......

Thanks Cindy for that report, it was very interesting and I look forward to any others you have to post.


I first saw this topic from a post made by Indiana Joe. I figure I would just spread the info on how we can all defeat the media!

Indiana Joe I love to see these posts that you put up here. I only read the newspaper at work and it is usually to see what Gold and Solver prices are as I am preparing to buy precious metals, so I never see to much of what else is going on in the world.

I am putting up this topic because not everything that is being reported by these housing market experts will affect 100% of everybody in Real Estate. The old saying of "If I can do it, You can do it." comes into play with this post. These are my opinions of the current market and what may or may not need to happen to get a loan. I am putting in my 2 cents on these "10 things to know"

1. True that many lenders gave out horrible loan packages, not all banks did. I do believe that belttightening will need to happen only to put the economy in check. The Great Depression was the reset button for America's economy. Just find a bank and talk to the senior lending manager or a president. Ask them about their lending practices, especially during the Real Estate Boom. What types of loans were they giving out, and to what kind of people? The real thing to remeber is that a bank that didn't give out alot of high risk loans means they didn't suffer when all of the other banks were being bought out. And with so many people being suckered by the media to belive they have no chance of getting a loan you will have less competition when it comes to getting a loan with bad credit for an investment property. Banks still need to give loans and a bank with an excellent track record will be more willing to lend to you than Wells Fargo or Bank of America will.

2. I have not yet found a bank with 100% financing. It is pretty much 85% LTV of the purchase price or Appraisal price, whichever is lower. So use someone elses money for a DP to make up the difference, or buy a property at such a low price that 15% is a very low cost.

3. Credit scores do NOT matter to a smart banker!! When I got my loan to purchase a duplex my transunion score was 585!! Your Debt to Income ratio is what matters more. If you are worried about your credit score feel better about by working hard on having a Debt to Income ratio of 30% or less. You could probably achieve a 30% D to I before you could raise your credit score 100 points. They are 100% correct that YOU SHOULD KNOW WHAT IS ON YOUR CREDIT REPORT!!!! Check your report every quarter! Don't waste a bankers time by going into their ofice without any idea of what your credit report, financial statement, or business plan. 9 out of 10 people ask for a loan and have no clue what they really want for a loan. Don't be qualified by the banker, you need to qualify the bank.

4.Even better than the FHA is an "In House Loan". Their terms are more flexible, easier to apply for, easier to talk to the banker about, and an awesome way to start a relationship with a bank! So far when I asked a credit union and a savings and loan banks about their "IN house loans" they both told me the most beautiful answer when I asked if their in house loans had a credit score minimum, They both said "no". Once again don't worry about your credit score although you may need a higher down payment you can still get a loan.

5.,6.,7.,8.,9.,10. Do these things affect an Investor? Many of these items will affect loans for a primary residence (bad debt, liability). So what if the interest rates go up that means seller financing will be more available.

We do NOT BUY HOUSES AT FAIR MARKET VALUE. If you buy a property at a low enough price you can't go wrong. With a low price you can use just about any exit strategy you want to.

Stay creative, talk to banks, and do NOT let False Evidence Appearing Real stop you in your tracks.


Quad City Real Estate Investors Association


Here is the proof of getting a loan to buy a deal with a 585 Credit Score.


Look me up on Facebook, put in a message when Friend Requesting or be denied. http://www.facebook.com/people/James-Greer/100000908311950

Great Information Sharing

You see why I enjoy coming to this site. There are always new information coming to you freely. Thanks for sharing. God Bless.



"You can never get to the top, if you are not willing to climb. Do not look at the difficulty of the climb, only anticipate the view from the top."
"Can't even walk without you holding my hand." (Song)
"Is anything too hard for the Lord ..." Genesis 19:14
"In all things, wait on the Lord."
"Think not of your own deliverance, but trust in God who will give in abundance."
"When you are down to nothing, God is up to something." Unknown
"Our lives begin to end, the day we become silent about those things that really matters." Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

Thanks Cindy, for the article.

And I agree with JGREER. In-house loans rock!
It's sort of nice living in a bubble. If one thing doesn't work (or stops working), you just find something else that does. Smiling Forces one to be resourceful.



"Obstacles can slow you down, but they can only stop you with your permission." Dean Graziosi (BARM pg 101)

"For I know the plans I have for you," declares the Lord, "plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future." Jeremiah 29:11

For a little about me, welcome to the site, and a few tips for new DG family members, click on this link: http://www.deangraziosi.com/user/3249

Good Job

I have been reading a lot of good articles here. Very motivational reading materials. It will serve also as a reference guide to new investors. Keep up the good work guys....dom


very good information there and jgreer has some good points too you all rock

Thank you thank

Fred E


I am very new. This is my first post. After reading Dean's book twice I finally decided not to wait another minute for fear of things drying up. I am new to GA. (which is my current home) But I have high hopes and every confidence in the information that I've obtained and welcom any advice that you guys might have.

Thanks and God Bless


Very interesting read! this

Very interesting read! this site is just full of knowledge! Media can discourage anyone. false prophets could be another name for the media!

Thanks CindyC and JGREER!!

Great info from both of you. As I look towards my first deal, I'm always hearing the "bad news" about the housing market and freaking out about getting into a deal that will send me to the poor house. I'm studying a lot about lease options and subject-to deals and I feel that this is probably the safest way to start. What do you or anybody else think about these strategies now and in the coming year?

Thanks again,



Rick Merritt
Trident Realty, LLC

Weak is he who permits his thoughts to control his actions; Strong is he who forces his actions to control his thoughts. --Og Mandino

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Hi Rick,

Thanks for the comments. Being pretty much of a newbie myself, and with absolutely no money to toss around, I'm focusing on doing assignments until I can build up a bit of a nest egg and start investing some of my own funds. My goal is to have done at least 8 by the end of March 2010. I've also had a couple of people approach me about bird-dogging for them, which I intend to pursue. This will also give me the funds to attend the EDGE event in Arizona which is an investment I don't feel I can afford to pass up.

I'm located in the San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles and I still have not seen signs of a housing rebound. Despite all the optimistic news in the press and coming out of Washington about an upswing, my target neighborhoods, which go from working class to affluent, are still struggling. In my neighborhood alone there are an astounding number of short sales and foreclosures. I've seen houses reduced up to 6 times in some instances. The upper-end homes, those $1M and above, are now ending up on the foreclosure lists more often. Because of this, my personal forecast is that 2010 is still going to see the housing market struggle to pull away from the bottom and I don't think it will start to rise again until maybe late in the year. Especially given the fact that housing sales fell off in anticipation of the end of the tax credit, I feel that they will fall again in late April when the extension approaches expiration. I also do not anticipate the credit being extended beyond that. The unemployment situation is also not very rosey here and the state is looking at yet another huge budget shortfall, following the bandaid the legislature applied a few months back.

Every area of the country is different. I know some areas are doing much better than Southern California, so you need to study your target area and figure out what the state of the housing market is in that area.



Life isn’t about waiting for the storm to pass…
It’s about learning to dance in the rain.

The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity. The fears are paper tigers. You can do anything you decide to do. You can act to change and control your life; and the procedure, the process is its own reward. - Amelia Earhart

"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard


Thanks for the wonderful insight. Could you explain in further detail what an In House Loan is.

I've never heard of this type of a loan before.

I'm in the process of shopping for a loan, I found an REO that I'm interested in. If I decide that I want it, the agent that I found it through wants me to get prequalified before he makes an offer for me.

Any and all ideas on how to deal with this are helpful.



In House Loans

In House Loans are best explained by the bank you request a loan from. Each bank has there own terms and requirements. But they are usually very simple because the loan will stay with the bank and will not be sold off to the secondary market. Since it doesn't get sold off it (per bank terms and requirments)has a faster turnaround time for underwriting. Check your local banks websites for info and interest rates for In House Loans, or better yet just talk to a "Senior Loan Officer","Lending Manager" etc. They will give you the best information that you need to secure a loan for this REO.

You don't need Good Luck if you show Confidence and have all of your financial documents in good standing. When I say good standing I don't mean 700+ credit score or $50,000 cash in the bank. Just have all your documents well prepared, be honest with your needs, and show them the deal.

Get it done.


Quad City Real Estate Investors Association


Here is the proof of getting a loan to buy a deal with a 585 Credit Score.


Look me up on Facebook, put in a message when Friend Requesting or be denied. http://www.facebook.com/people/James-Greer/100000908311950

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