Barclay’s Take on the Housing Market

Barclay’s Take on the Housing Market

Housing experts at Barclay’s Capital are convinced that the worst of the housing market decline is over. A look at the 4th quarter earnings documentation from 20 national and regional banks provided the data that led to Barclay’s conclusion.

The banks all seem to agree that the housing market has stabilized in all but a few parts of the country. The weakest areas where further declines may be seen are Arizona, Nevada and parts of Florida.

Housing still constitutes an area where troubled asset portfolios still trouble many banks, but the number of new problem loans is going down and the credit strangle-hold is beginning to loosen.

Barclay’s economists believe that the loan restructuring programs under HAMP have actually begun to make a difference to the health of many lending institutions, and that the new emphasis on debt forgiveness will bring a further stabilization in the housing market.

Barclay’s indicated that lenders would be using their REO inventory like a valve—moving more of this inventory into the active housing market as prices stabilize and cutting back should prices start to dip again.



Life isn’t about waiting for the storm to pass…
It’s about learning to dance in the rain.

The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity. The fears are paper tigers. You can do anything you decide to do. You can act to change and control your life; and the procedure, the process is its own reward. - Amelia Earhart

"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard

Barclay's Take on the Market

I find it interesting that debt restructuring is considered to improve the health of lending institutuions. Restructuring usually means rewriting a loan on new terms more favorable to the borrower. In some cases that may improve the cash flow of the lender if the borrowers begin making regular payments again. But those write offs and lower interest rates cost the lender money in the short term.
I definitely see the banks using REO inventory like a valve to keep from flooding the market and driving prices further down. The sheer volume of REOs though hang as a cloud on prices recovering soon.
That being said, it spells opportunity for the investor. If we get the properties at the right prices, profits can be made.


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